Wyndham Championship
Wyndham Championship
Aug 05, 2024Wyndham Championship
It was a blank week for us at the 3M Open as although a couple of our picks hovered around the periphery of the places we were unable to bag any kind of return.
The event in the end was won by Jonny Vegas who belied his recent form to return to the winners enclosure after injury issues and a seven year winless drought. His victory was definitely one for course form trumping current form as although it had been a struggle of late for the Venezuelan he had finished second here before.
So after a weeks break on the PGA Tour in which we saw Scottie Scheffler dramatically pip Tommy Fleetwood to Olympic Gold we move on to the last regular event of the PGA Tour season before we head in to the Play Off’s , The Wyndham Championship.
The Wyndham Championship was first played on tour in 1938 and was initially known as the Greater Greensboro Open.
Historically the event was always played in April/May time, however in 2007 it was renamed the Wyndham Championship based on its new sponsor and at the same time it moved to its current spot.
The Wyndham Championship has carved out a niche spot for itself on the PGA Tour over recent years as the last regular season event before we head in to the play offs, and it’s now last chance saloon time for those on the bubble of making it in to the top 70 and the Play Offs.
All week long we will see the names of the players in the field roll alphabetically through the bottom of the screen in either green or red to indicate their position and whether they are ‘in or out’.
The significance of finishing inside the 70 for players not already exempt for the following year [through a victory in the previous season for example] is huge, as not only does your spot in the Fedex St Jude, the first play off event, it guarantees your status on tour for the next season.
For those who then finish outside the top 70 they will then have an opportunity to secure their plating rights for 2025 by finishing in the top 125 after the Fedex Fall events are completed. As we saw last year then finishing 120th say at the end of this week does not guarantee your card for the following season as it would have done before and equally if you end up 140th after this week you can still play your way in with a good Fall.
Still though there is a huge amount on the line this week and be prepared for the inevitable heroics and heartbreaks come Sunday as someone either birdies the last three holes to get in at 70th or three putts the last to fall from 69th to 71st.
The current ‘bubble boys’ who I am sure we will see plenty of on our screens for the first couple of days at least are Brandan Todd & Victor Perez who occupy the last two spots at 69th & 70th respectively, while on the outside looking in are Davis Riley and Andrew Putnam who sit at 71st & 72nd
The market is headed up Sungjae Im . The Korean is then followed by Shane Lowry, Billy Horschel and Si Woo Kim.
COURSE
Sedgefield CC is a par 70 measuring just over 7100yds.
The greens are Bermuda.
The course was designed by Donald Ross and opened for play in 1926.
Other Donald Ross designs used on tour include East Lake, home of the Tour Championship, Aronimink which hosted last years BMW Championship as well as the 2010 & 2011 AT&T Nationals & of course Detroit G&CC the home of the Rocket Mortgage Classic where we were last week.
In summary Sedgefield CC plays as one of the easiest Par 70s on tour and is a course that the shorter hitters tend to perform well on.
Finding the fairways and greens here is the order of the day with GIR being particularly significant as this will give you the opportunity to make the birdies that will be required to get the job done.
HISTORY
So let’s take a look at the last ten winners since 2010.
The winners of these events have been as follows;
2023 L Glover
2022 T Kim
2021 K Kisner
2020 J Herman
2019 JT Poston
2018 B Snedeker
2017 H Stenson
2016 S W Kim
2015 D Love III
2014 C Villegas
2013 P Reed
2012 S Garcia
With this event until 2018 historically coming the week after the PGA Championship the key point that we used to have to consider is whether to side with players who had been in the hunt at the previous weeks major and this year with the scheduling change we are back in that situation.
In 2020 after a year of the new schedule when the PGA was played in May, due to the Covid 19 pandemic the event again had a spot after the PGA Championship, and this possibly contributed to the huge priced shock winner we saw Jim Herman.
In 2021 though this point of course became redundant again.
Looking at correlating course form and TPC Sawgrass and Hilton Head certainly jump of the page as does Detroit CC.
Firstly if we look at those winners going back to 2012 four of them have either before, or subsequently since, won The Players Championship.
These players are Stenson, S W Kim, Love III and Garcia. In addition 2011 champion here Webb Simpson has also triumphed at TPC Sawgrass. In addition of the other winners over this stretch Villegas has a 3rd place finish to his name at TPC, Snedeker has a fifth place there, Poston has played strongly there and 2021 champion here Kevin Kisner lost in a play-off to Rickie Fowler at Sawgrass, so that leaves only Reed, Herman and the most recent winners Glover and Tom Kim without any real Sawgrass pedigree.
If we then look at the RBC Heritage, which is another shortish Carolina’s design we see that 2019 champion Poston has two top ten’s there, 2018 runner up CT Pan was victorious at Hilton Head while 2017 Wyndham Champion, Brandt Snedeker is a former Hilton Head Champion, if we then dig a bit further we can see that course specialist Si Woo Kim, winner here in 2016 was runner up at Hilton Head, while 2015 veteran champion here Davis Love III collected Plaid Jackets for fun at the Heritage in his earlier years on tour. Meanwhile Kisner, as he has at Sawgrass has also lost in a play off at Hilton Head.
Finally if we look at 2020 leaderboard here the Champion Herman had produced his best full field finish of 2020 at Hilton Head prior to his win here.
The message is therefore loud and clear, players with Sawgrass and Hilton Head form go seriously well here.
As for past course form at Sedgefield itself whilst this is always useful it does not appear to be essential. Four of the six winners from 2016 through to 2021, Herman, Poston, Stenson and Si Woo Kim had played in the event six times between them prior to winning and had only made one cut between them posting a best place finish of 50th! Meanwhile 2022 winner Tom Kim was making his debut here when he won and last years winner had a best of 18th in his previous ten starts in the event!
Conversely though the 2018 winner Brandt Snedeker, who memorably opened up his week with a 59, had a raft of ‘previous’ here, notching his first tour victory here in 2007 before posting four top eight finishes in his most recent eight starts, while 2020 winner Herman had shown a liking to the course before with two top 20 finishes in four starts in years gone by. Similarly 2021 winner Kevin Kisner was clearly a ‘horse for the course’ finishing third here the year before his triumph.
Next let’s take a look at how important recent good form coming in to the week has been over the years. Below is a table showing the last ten winners and their four previous starts coming in to the week with the most recent start shown first.
2023 L Glover MC 5 6 4
2022 T Kim 7 26 47 3
2021 K Kisner 63 73 8 5
2020 J Herman 77 MC MC 33
2019 JT Poston 29 MC 11 MC
2018 B Snedeker 42 8 MC 3
2017 H Stenson 13 17 11 MC
2016 S W Kim 25 MC 23 2
2015 D Love III MC MC 54 MC
2014 C Villegas WD 45 26 MC
2013 P Reed 9 7 MC 34
2012 S Garcia MC 29 MC 38
As we can see from this table there is no hugely clear picture here with only five of the past ten winners having posted a top ten finish in their previous four starts. Over the last three years though Glover, Tom Kim and Kisner have all been in strong form prior to winning.
Another thing to look at is how many of these winners were first time winners on tour. The answer to this is five with T Kim, Poston, S W Kim, Reed & Simpson all landing their first PGA Tour title in this event. This is certainly a good chance then for maidens to grab their first victory.
Finally, as mentioned above Sedgefield CC is one of the easiest par 70s on tour and this is reflected in the winning scores notched.
The lowest winning number over the past ten years was recorded by Poston in 2019 and Stenson in 2017 who both got the job done with a -22 total with Poston memorably going all four rounds bogey free while the highest winning score was Reed’s -14.
On average though somewhere around the -18 to -20 mark is required to walk away with the trophy.
WEATHER FORECAST
Temperatures look set to sit around the mid to low 80s mark through the week and currently there is a chance of a storm showing on Thursday and Friday in particular.
Wind could be a slight issue over the first two days in particular with gusts of 15-20mph in the forecast for Thursday and Friday.
As I always say though…this could all change!
PICKS
I have gone with five players this week as follows;
SUNGJAE IM – 16/1 – 3pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 41st
I will start this week with a predictable pick from the top of the market, Sungjae Im.
Sungjae arrives here rested since the Open Championship where he finished seventh. That top ten gave him his eighth top 12 finish in his last ten starts going back to April, with the only blots on his copybook coming in the PGA Championship and US Open where he missed the cut.
A look at the Korean’s record at Sedgefield CC also gives us plenty of encouragement as he has cracked the top 25 on all of his five visits here posting three top tens including a runner up finish a couple of years ago.
A third tour win is certainly overdue for Sungjae and with this being a perfect case of course form meets current form I find him impossible to ignore this week.
MAVERICK MCNEALY – 55/1 –1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 45th
Next up I’ll take my chances on Maverick McNealy.
McNealy is a player we are all waiting on to break through and bag his first tour win and he came close once again when finishing third at the 3M Open last time out.
Although McNealy has no course form to speak of, missing the cut on his only previous visit, he has consistently shown that he is ay his best on shorter and/or par 70 tracks.
Seventh on the short par 70 lay out in Canada recently Maverick also posted a top ten at TPC Sawgrass earlier this year. Add that to his strong record at Hilton Head where he has a top five to his name and he has form at all the right correlating tracks.
The possessor of a great short game this really should be a perfect layout for Maverick and I’ll take him to build on his great performance last time out.
ERIC COLE – 66/1 –1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED T7th
Another player who really should be suited to Sedgefield CC is Eric Cole.
It’s been a tough sophomore season for Eric, however after a poor spring and early summer he has sprung back in to life more recently to post back to back top tens at the Rocket Mortgage and John Deere before having a solid fortnight in the UK.
Fourteenth here on debut last year Eric went on to post a runner up finish on the short par 70 at the ZOZO while he was also third at the RSM so again this looks like a perfect track for his hot putter to thrive.
DENNY McCARTHY – 66/1 –1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 33rd
Moving on and this seems an ideal opportunity for Denny McCarthy to bag a long overdue maiden PGA Tour trophy at decent odds.
Arguably the best putter on tour Denny should hopefully be able to capitalise here in what I expect to be soft scorable conditions. Basically and particularly over the weekend this could turn in to a putting contest.
Denny missed the cut on both of his starts in the UK, however with little links pedigree I am happy to overlook that and instead focus on his solid form prior to that which saw him finish seventh at the John Deere on his last start in the US.
McCarthy has missed his last two cuts here however he was ninth in 2020 with a round of 63 in the books that year so we know he can handle the track and I am happy to side with him here.
JUSTIN SUH - 175/1 –1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 52nd
Finally I will go back to Justin Suh who we were on last time out at juicy odds again.
While Suh didn’t reward us at the 3M there was plenty in his 19th place finish to confirm that his 11th in his previous start wasn’t a flash in the pan.
Another, in keeping with our team who possesses a hot putter Suh can also boast a sixth place last year at the correlating Sawgrass. In need of a huge week to get himself anywhere close to the top 125, never mind the top 70, I can see Justin going well here.