3M Open

3M Open

it was a fascinating week at Royal Troon for the Open Championship with Xander Schauffele eventually coming out on top on a scintillating final day.

Alongside Schauffele the other ‘winner’ of the week was the course, with, aided by Mother Nature, a layout, which many thought would be a push over for the world’s best, proving in the end to be too much for many of the games leading names to handle. In the end though with eight players separated by just two shots heading in to the final day it was the PGA Champion who produced a master class posting 65 to see off his challengers.

After years then as being seen as a ‘nearly man’ who struggled to close events out Schauffele is clearly now the nearest challenger to Scottie Scheffler and with no real weak links to his all round game it would be a brave man who would bet against him adding to his Major tally over the next year or two. He now has his sights firmly set on a Green Jacket and a US Open to complete the grand slam.

From our point of view it was a strong week. Things started well on Thursday as we bagged a full place return from our 70/1 FRL pick Justin Thomas along with a good chunk of place money for our other FRL pick 66/1 Alex Noren. We then went on to bag full e/w returns from 110/1 selection Russell Henley and 33/1 Shanle Lowry. Henley is steadily becoming a man to watch out for in the Majors as he backed up his seventh at the US Open with fifth place here and you couldn’t fault his bogey free 69 on Sunday. As for Lowry his tournament was lost in a ten hole stretch on Saturday when he dropped seven shots in brutal conditions having lead the way. While there is no doubt he got the worst of the weather on Saturday it was the same for those playing around him such as 54 hole leader Billy Horschel and you would have to say that Lowry’s attitude left a lot to be desired in that stretch compared to the likes of Horschel and Justin Rose. Hopefully he will sit down with his team and analyse the third round. He does deserve credit though for the way he rallied on Sunday.

Over at the Barracuda Championship we managed to salvage the event courtesy of a Sunday charge from our 30/1 pick Patrick Rodgers who stormed through the field to finish fifth. After birdieing seven of his first nine holes it looked like more might be possible for Patrick but he stalled on the back nine.

The event itself was won by Nick Dunlap who backed up his Amex win as an amateur to post his first win as a pro. Mightily impressive stuff from the young man.

So after it’s trip to the UK and for some to California the tour heads to Blaine, Minnesota, a suburb north of Minneapolis, for the Sixth edition of the 3M Open.

Not unsurprisingly on the back of the Open the field takes a bit of hit, however with only two more regular tour events to come after this week before the play-offs the focus will turn more to those needing some big performances to make the top 70 and to cement their place in the biggest of events next season.

There is still some star power on display with the field and market headed up by former champion Tony Finau, Sam Burns, Akshay Bhatia and Sahith Theegala.

COURSE

TPC Twin Cities is a Par 71 measuring around 7450 yards.                         

The greens are bentgrass.

The course was designed by Arnold Palmer in consultation with Tom Lehman and was opened for play in 2000.

One possible reference here therefore could be Bay Hill, which was subject to an Arnold Palmer redesign in 2009, while it may also be worth looking at another Palmer design TPC Boston, which hosted the Dell Technologies Championship [formerly the Deutsche Bank] until 2018.

While TPC Twin Cities is only in its fifth year of hosting a PGA Tour event it was used for many years to host the 3M Champions Tour event.

It should be noted though that prior to the first staging of the 3M Open the course underwent renovation, which was overseen by Minnesotan native Tom Lehman [who will tee it up this week].

The changes made included adding trees and sand traps, enlarging lakes, particularly the one in front of the 18^th green, levelling mounding and expanding the rough.

In addition and perhaps most significantly, length was added to the course and instead of a par 72 playing to just under 7000yds, which historically greeted the Champions Tour, the PGA Tour players are faced by a 7450yd par 71.

As a result of this the par 5 sixth can play to over 600yds, the par 5 18^th to 597yds and what was the par 5 third will now be a par 4 playing to over 500yds.

Conversely though the course also boasts three driveable par 4s, which can be set up to play between 280 & 315yds. These are the 7^th, 10^th and 16^th holes.

HISTORY

So with only five years history let’s take a look at the top ten from those first five editions.

2023

1 L Hodges

T2 JT Poston, M Laird, K Streelman

T5 D Wu, K Mitchell.

T7 A Baddeley, T Finau, S Ryder

T10 C Davis, S Stevens, E Grillo.

2022

1 T Finau

T2 S Im, E Grillo

T4 S Piercy, T Hoge, J Hahn

T7 D Willett, G Sigg, C Tarren

10 C Hadley.

2021

1 C Champ

T2 L Oosthuizen, C Schwartzel & J Vegas

5 K Mitchell

T6 R Armour, A Hadwin, KH Lee, M Pereira, B Stuard.

2020

1 Michael Thompson

2 Adam Long

T3 Tony Finau, Emiliano Grillo, Max Homa, Charles Howell III, Alex Noren, Charl Schwartzel, Robby Shelton, Cameron Tringale, Richie Werenski.

2019

1 Matthew Wolff

T2 Bryson Dechambeau & Collin Morikawa

4 Adam Hadwin

T5 Carlos Ortiz & Wyndham Clark

T7 Lucas Glover, Brian Harman, Sam Burns, Joey Garber, Troy Merritt, Hideki Matsuyama.

The suspicion when the event first came on tour was that with the extra length added to the course the setup would favour bigger hitters and with Matthew Wolff triumphing in 2019, Bryson finishing in a tie for second [he was still pretty long prior to his bulking out!], and other big hitters like Wyndham Clark and Sam Burns performing well this certainly appeared to be the case. Having said that as Harman and Merritt showed there was room for a shorter hitter to perform well here as well. All in all though length certainly appeared to be an advantage.

In 2020 however of the top dozen home only Tony Finau could be put in the ‘bomber’ category and with Michael Thompson winning it would seem that everyone has a chance here.

In 2021 however those focusing on the bigger hitters may well have landed on Cameron Champ, [as longer term readers will remember we did!!] and he duly obliged, while in 2022 Finau, another big hitter got his hands on the trophy with another bomber Callum Tarren making the frame. Equally though the likes of E Grillo, T Hoge, J Hahn and G Sigg made the frame so while the bombers have as a whole won the day here there is certainly room for those who are shorter off the tee but pick a course apart to thrive.

Last year however L Hodges lead the field a merry dance to win by seven shots and was followed home by JT Poston, Martin Laird and Kevin Streelman, none of whom could be described in anyway as ‘bombers’.

Digging a bit deeper and while we know the 2019 winner Matthew Wolff is no slouch off the tee it was his overall tee to green game that got the job done for him as he finished the week second for Strokes-Gained-Tee-To-Green and first in Strokes-Gained-Approach-To-The-Green. Meanwhile the putter seemed less important as he finished the week 39^th with the flatstick, and on Sunday despite shooting 65 he lost just under two strokes to the field with the putter!

Looking at the others who finished prominently on the board in 2019 and Dechambeau produced a strong all round week both from tee to green and with the putter while Morikawa predictably lead the field in approach play but ranked only 47^th for the week with the putter.

Meanwhile looking at the 2020 statistics and Michael Thompson only ranked 88^th off the tee but fourth in approach play and sixth in putting while runner up Long after struggling in the opening two days caught fire with his approaches over the weekend gaining over 6.5 shots over Saturday and Sunday. It would seem then that TPC Twin Cities is very much a ‘second shot’ course.

Returning to Champ’s victory and while as you would expect for a winner he was solid in all areas he ‘only’ ranked 27^th from tee to green and 19^th in approach play on the week and it was actually his flat stick, for which he ranked first, which was the key to his victory.

In 2022 Finau produced a dominant long game display last year ranking third off the tee, third in approach and first from tee to green, however he was only 42^nd in putting.

Finally and to bring us up to date Hodges lead the field in Approach play and was fourth for the week in putting, a potent combination!

With the event taking the spot straight after the Open Championship the other obvious thing to mention is ‘Major fatigue’, with, as we regularly see, players who were in the hunt in the big event the week before struggling to perform the week after.

Up until the end of last year If we look though at the winners of events directly following a Major since the start of the 20/21 season they have been Hudson Swafford, Robert Streb, Stewart Cink, Jason Kokrak, Harris English, Cameron Champ, Jordan Spieth, Sam Burns, Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, Matt Fitzpatrick, Emiliano Grillo, Keegan Bradley and Lee Hodges of these only English had been seriously in the mix the week before finishing third at Torrey Pines.

This year though a certain Mr Scheffler has torn that theory to pieces landing both the Heritage and the Travelers after the Masters and US Open respectively. The performance at Hilton Head was inparticular hugely impressive on the back of his Masters triumph however we shouldn’t forget that he was never seriously in the hunt at Pinehurst finishing 41^st.

Delving further though and if we look at the last nine winners of the RBC Canadian Open when it was the most recent regular PGA Tour event to be played directly after the Open alongside Champ’s win in 2021, Finau’s in 2022 and Hodges’ last year here we will see that of the six winners of the event to have played in the Open the week before only two of them had performed notably in the event.

Here is a list of how they fared on the Links the week before;

2023 Lee Hodges MC

2022 Tony Finau 28

2021 Cameron Champ DNP

2018 Dustin Johnson MC

2017 Jhonattan Vegas MC

2016 Jhonattan Vegas DNP [Finished 4^th at Barbasol]

2015 Jason Day 4^th

2014 Tim Clark DNP

2013 Brandt Snedeker 11^th

2012 Scott Piercy DNP

2011 Sean O’Hair MC

2010 Carl Pettersson DNP

As we can see then with only Jason Day and Brandt Snedeker having been any kind of factor at the Open it is quite possible to conclude that understandably the long week of ‘Major pressure’ on top of all the travelling it entails is not the ideal preparation. In addition this week of course those arriving in Minnesota from Troon who played all four days will have gone through a particularly gruelling weekend weather wise on the links.

From the point of view of form coming in to the week of the four 3M Open winners to date 2019 Champion Wolff had only very recently joined the pro ranks however while big things were expected finishes of MC and 80 at the Rocket Mortgage and Travelers over the previous weeks had hardly telegraphed a big week here.

While 2020 winner Thompson had shown a glimpse of form with an eighth place finish at the RBC Heritage a month before he arrived on the back of a run of MC 64 46 and had not posted another top 20 in the calendar year so he was certainly not arriving in strong form.

2021 winner Champ however had telegraphed a return to form with an eye catching 11^th place at the John Deere a fortnight before, while Finau not having done much in his previous three starts, with a best of 13^th, did at least close out his week at St Andrews with a 66 to take some positive momentum back across the Atlantic.

Finally last years champion Hodges arrived on the back of three missed cuts in his previous four starts, however he had posted a 12^th at the Scottish Open. From a course form point of view he had also finished 16^th here in his only previous start the year before.

Looking at correlating courses and as well as Arnold Palmer designs to obvious reference that has developed over the first few years is the Honda Classic. Michael Thompson is a winner of both events while Lee Hodges has a 14^th and ninth in his two trips to PGA National. In addition a further scan down last years leaderboard here gives us another former Honda champion Keith Mitchell in fifth place.

Finally with regards to the winning score Wolff triumphed on -21 in 2019,  Thompson with -19 in 2020, Champ with -15 in 2021 and Finau with -17 in 2022, while Hodges posted an event record of -24 last year.

WEATHER FORECAST

As is the norm here we are set for a week of high temperatures, which should sit around 90 all week.

At the time of writing there is the possibility of a stray storm on Sunday but hopefully they will stay away.

Wind could be a slight issue particularly on Saturday where gusts could hit 20mph+

As I always say though this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with five players this week as follows;

KEITH MITCHELL – 30/1 – 2pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8 - FINISHED 46th

I am going to start this week by taking a chance that Keith Mitchell can put a poor week at the Barracuda behind him and get back on track at TPC Twin Cities.

Mitchell pitched up in Truckee on the back of a trip to Scotland, which saw him miss the cut, and not unsurprisingly after the long trip back across the pond and in conditions that really don’t suit he found himself with another weekend off.

Turn the clock back twelve months though and Keith did exactly the same thing before finishing fifth here. Go back two years further to Mitchell’s previous visit to TPC Twin Cities and he finished fifth again on the back of five straight missed cuts. Clearly then this is a course, which fits his eye.

The fact that Keith is here for his fifth straight week as well as telling us he likes the course, is also a reflection of his position in the Fedex Cup as he currently sits in 75^th with just this week and next to crack the top 70.

In those last four starts while he has missed three cuts he was 18^th at The John Deere posting 63 on route so we know some good golf is not far away.

Long off the tee and with his one tour win to date coming at PGA National there are of course very obvious pointers to Keith being suited to TPC Twin Cities and I am keen on his chances this week to finally bag his second tour win.

JAKE KNAPP – 75/1 –1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED WD

Next up and on a course where big hitters have had success it is fairly obvious to see why Jake Knapp is a popular pick already this week and I am also keen to have him on my team.

Knapp has enjoyed a stellar debut season on the PGA Tour landing his maiden title in Mexico, which correlates nicely here through Tony Finau, while also finishing fourth at PGA National. Furthermore he boasts an eighth place finish at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson on another low scoring TPC track.

It must be said that after his superb run of form at the beginning of the year Jake lost his way for a while however lately there are signs he is starting to pick up again as he has made his last three cuts and played nicely to finish 24^th at the Barracuda last week.

Jake currently sits 21^st on tour in Driving Distance so while this is his debut at TPC Twin Cities if you add this to the venues he has performed well at this year there is plenty to point to this being a track, which should really suit him and I am keen to have him onside.

ANDREW NOVAK –  80/1 - 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 24th

Next cab off the rank for me this week is Andrew Novak.

Novak has quietly put a really solid season together notching four top tens and two further top 20s while missing only five cuts along the way. It is perhaps then a reflection as to how the system of Signature Events is stacked against those trying to break in from the outside that he currently sits only 84^th in the Fedex standings and with work to do if he is to make the play offs.

The key to Andrew’s success this season has been his all round game, which sees him gaining strokes in all key areas. He is ranked 29^th in Approach Play, historically his main strength, 30^th from tee to green, 53^rd around the greens and 60^th in putting. Basically he is doing everything well.

Looking at where Novak has produced his best stuff this season and we can take strong encouragement from the fact that he was seventh at TPC Deere Run recently, while he was eighth at TPC Scottsdale earlier this year so we have some strong TPC form. Furthermore he was ninth at PGA National.

Go back to last year meanwhile and he posted a top ten at TPC San Antonio.

Granted Novak has not produced anything of note on his two previous visits here, however looking at his correlating form elsewhere, and the fact that he seems to be far more comfortable on tour this year and I am more than happy to overlook his lack of course form and I am keen to have him onside.

SAM RYDER – 100/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED MC

Next up this this week is Sam Ryder.

It’s been a disappointing year for Ryder to date and with just three top 25s and no top tens he currently languishes at 120^th in the Fedex standings.

While he has not pulled up any trees after missing three cuts on the spin through May and June Sam has perked up a bit of late to make his last three cuts and encouragingly he performed much better off the tee last week at the Barracuda ranking 35^th. Meanwhile his iron play was also solid last week as he ranked 11^th in approach play.

It is fair to say that consistency isn’t Sam’s strong point and he has been known regularly in his time on tour to pop up with a big finish out of the blue. Interestingly for this week those bigger performances often come in lower scoring events and indeed his record on TPC tracks is strong with third place finishes at TPC San Antonio and TPC Summerlin to his name along with a runner up finish at TPC Deere Run. Furthermore he notched a seventh place finish here last year on the back of three missed cuts. In addition from a correlating form point of view we can take great encouragement from finishes of 21^st eighth and ninth on his last three visits to PGA National.

Granted you never quite know what to expect from Ryder but on his day he has threatened to land a win on several occasions now and I am happy to chance him at the odds in this company this week.

JUSTIN SUH – 175/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8 - FINISHED 19th

After a really solid maiden full season on tour, which saw him post three top tens including a sixth at the Players and finish 81^st in the Fedex standings the idea that the highly rated Justin Suh would find himself on the verge of losing his card a year later would have been hard to believe.

After a horrible 2024 though that has seen him make only six cuts that is exactly where we are as he sits 187^th in the Fedex Cup heading in to this week.

A look at Suh’s years results tells us just how bad it has been missing 14 cuts and until last week his best result was 22^nd at Phoenix in January. Meanwhile his long game stats have him ranked 172^nd in approach, 130^th off the tee and 169^th tee to green, not pretty. The only shining light is the putter, for which he is ranked fourth.

Last week though he built on the slight promise from the ISCO the week before, which saw him open with a 65 to produce his best performance by far of the year at the Barracuda to finish 11^th.

Even more encouragingly the performance wasn’t just built around a string putting week as he ranked 18^th off the tee and 16^th in approach play while Sunday saw him ranked third off the tee.

With regards to course form Suh played solidly last year to finish 43^rd opening up with a round of 65 while he got a start here back in 2019 making his only cut in six starts on the PGA Tour that year.

From a correlating form point of view we have plenty of encouragement.

Firstly we can take great heart from his fifth place at the Honda Classic last year, which we know links well while his sixth place at The Players and indeed his best effort this year of 22^nd in Phoenix gives us some good TPC course form.

We saw the week after the PGA Championship with Davis Riley what is possible when it all clicks for a highly touted young player and that week we took the clues from his recent uptick in form. Here then I can see some very similar comparisons and in an event, which wont take a lot of winning I am happy to chance Suh to produce something similar.