The Players Championship

The Players Championship

Another week, another case of ‘close but no cigar’ for us at Bay Hill. Heading in to Sunday we had three selections in the frame, Wyndham Clark, Harris English and Max Homa with Clark in particular right in the hunt. In the end though while no one can argue with Scottie Scheffler’s flawless parade to victory on Clark could hang tough for us meaning we came away without a profit.

Add in a disappointing showing in Puerto Rico with Martin Laird our best performer in tenth and it was another tough week as whole.

So, moving on and the Tour now head about 180 miles North East to Ponte Vedre Beach, Jacksonville and to what is arguably my favourite week of the year on the PGA Tour, The Players Championship, with this year marking the 50^th anniversary of the event.

TPC Sawgrass opened in 1980 and the stadium course has been host to the Players Championship since 1982.

I’ve been lucky enough to go to the Players Championship on several occasions in the past and I am delighted to say I will once more be in attendance this year!

As is always the case the field is a stellar one with the market marginally headed up by Jon Rahm. Rahm is then followed by Rory Mcilroy who just edges the third of the ‘big three’ Scottie Scheffler, in the betting based no doubt on his far greater course history.

COURSE

The course is a Par 72 and measures just under 7200 yards.

TPC Sawgrass is the jewel in the crown of the Pete Dye’s designs used on the PGA Tour. Other Dye designs used regularly on Tour include Hilton Head the home of the RBC Heritage, TPC River Highlands home of the Travelers and the Stadium Course used for two rounds of the Amex event played in the Californian desert.

After the 2016 edition the greens were changed from Miniverde Bermuda  to TiffEagle Bermuda.

In 2020 there was a further change to the greens as they were over seeded with Velvet Bent/Poa Trivialis.

After the 2016 edition a course redesign took place, which as well as seeing the greens being re planted saw the 5^th, 6^th & 12^th holes undergo changes.

The most noticeable of these was the changes made on the 12^th which saw it become a driveable par 4.

One hole that wasn’t changed though was the Par 3 17^th which is one of the most iconic holes in world golf.

Measuring 137 yards this hole really should be no more than a pitch and putt hole for the players and if it wasn’t surrounded by water it surely would be.

However when the players arrive on the tee to the sight of the big blue lake and the huge galleries, their minds start to play all sorts of tricks on them and even on the calmest of days you’ll see balls going in the water.

When the wind does blow it becomes a real monster [as does the whole course] and all sorts of havoc occurs!

The Par 3 17^th is part of a fantastic overall finish to the course with eagles being possible on the Par 5 16^th, huge numbers being possible on the 17^th, and finally the 18^th, the toughest hole on the course to finish.

With this finish no lead is too big on Sunday afternoon coming in to this stretch and you can see big comebacks [Rickie of course] and real disasters [remember Sean O’Hair.]

HISTORY

As mentioned above the event has been held at the Stadium Course, TPC Sawgrass since 1982.

For the majority of this time the event was held in mid to late March, however in 2007 the event date was changed to the second weekend in May.

The main reasons behind this at the time were twofold, firstly to give the PGA Tour’s flagship event more of its own identity, rather than it being seen as a warm up to the Masters and secondly to move the event to a statistically dryer time of year so that they could get the course playing firmer and faster as the design had intended.

Moving on ten years though and a decision was made as part of a reshuffle to the PGA Tour Calendar to revert TPC back to its historical slot in March from last year.

So let’s take a look at the last winners since 2011;

2023 Scottie Scheffler

2022 Cameron Smith

2021 Justin Thomas

2019 Rory McIlroy

2018 Webb Simpson

2017 Si Woo Kim

2016 Jason Day

2015 Rickie Fowler

2014 Martin Kaymer

2013 Tiger Woods

2012 Matt Kuchar

2011 KJ Choi

Over the years of the event it is fair to say that a very clear pattern had emerged of an identikit winner and if I had been writing this preview in the lead up to the 2015 edition I would have been pretty bullish of the credentials of player we should be looking for.

To outline this let’s look at the ten winners from 2005 to 2014. These were as follows;

F Funk, S Ames, P Mickelson, S Garcia, H Stenson, T Clark, KJ Choi, M Kuchar, T Woods & M Kaymer.

So what do these players have in common? Not a lot you’d think on first glance however in relation to Sawgrass form it is quite striking.

Firstly they had all played in the event on multiple occasions building up a bank of course experience.

Secondly they had all notched previous high finishes in the event with KJ Choi’s 16^th place being the worst ‘previous high finish’ any of these players had. All bar Kaymer, Kuchar & KJ Choi had a previous top 10.

Thirdly all bar Ames had made the cut the previous year at the event.

However, since 2014 these stats have been diluted slightly in that both the 2015 & 2016 winners Fowler & Day had missed the cut the previous year, however both had made five starts in the event and both had a previous top 10 finish.

2017 winner Si Woo Kim then won the event on only his second start, something unheard of over the previous decade plus. Although it should be noted that he did finish 23^rd on his debut the previous year so we can at least say he had taken to the course.

In 2018 however the formula pretty much returned with Webb Simpson’s victory.

Webb had, like many winners before him, made multiple starts in the event and he had posted his best finishes of 15^th and 16^th in the event over his previous four visits, the latter of, which had come the year before in 2017.

On to 2019, and the trophy was bagged by Rory McIlroy. Rory’s win fitted this profile on two fronts in that he had made numerous previous starts in the event posting three consecutive top tens from 2013 through to 2015. He had however missed the cut here in 2018 on his previous visit to winning .

With the 2020 event cancelled due to the Covid pandemic we move on to 2021 and the winner Justin Thomas ticked all of the ‘formula’ boxes in relation to course form in that he had made five previous starts including a best of third place and had made the cut here the previous year posting a solid 35^th place, all of, which as longer term readers will remember, lead to us being onboard!

Next we have the 2022 winner Cameron Smith who was making his fifth start here. Smith had produced his best finish here the previous year when finishing 17^th so again we have the same pattern of a bank of course history with one strong finish.

Finally, to bring us up to date last years winner Scottie Scheffler bucked the trend some what. Obviously as one of the worlds best players, Scheffler is more than capable of bucking trends at any time, however with just two starts at Sawgrass with finishes of MC 55 to his name prior to last year he wasn’t on my radar coming in to the week.

One other thing that is of huge significance in identifying the winner over the years is recent form coming in with the winners having a really solid outing in their previous start to their victory here; To expand this further here is a table showing the finishing positions of the winners again going back to 2011 in their start prior to lifting the trophy here.

2023  Scottie Scheffler 4

2022 Cameron Smith 33

2021 Justin Thomas    15

2019 Rory McIlroy      3

2018 Webb Simpson  21

2017 Si Woo Kim        22

2016 Jason Day           5

2015 Rickie Fowler      9

2014 Martin Kaymer   18

2013 Tiger Woods       4

2012 Matt Kuchar       13

2011 KJ Choi                3

As you can see all had made the cut and the worst finish of any of the winners noted in their previous start was 33^rd by Cameron Smith at the Genesis in 2022. Smith had though already won once in the calendar year at the Sentry  just three starts prior so clearly confidence was still on a high.

There is also one other thing that connects some of the historical winners and that’s as follows….

As we know TPC is sometimes referred to as the ‘fifth major’ and it has certainly caught my eye over the years that the winners have often been players who were/are pedigree players on the world stage, had played Ryder Cup or Presidents Cup, and/or were considered potential major winners/had come close in majors on occasions, but at the time of winning TPC they hadn’t quite been able to get over the line [or indeed still haven’t.]

This list going back to 2010 includes Tim Clark, KJ Choi, Garcia, Stenson, Kuchar, Fowler and prior of course to his win at St Andrews in the summer, Smith.

Finally there is also so something about Sawgrass that has helped return some of these names to the winners enclosure after a lean period with regards to victories.

To clarify if we again look at the last ten winners we find the following;

Only six of these winner, Scheffler, Smith, Thomas, Si Woo Kim in 2017, Jason Day in 2016 and Tiger in 2013 had won on tour over the previous twelve months with Scheffler, Smith, Tiger and Day having won earlier that calendar year.

Of the remainder McIlroy was posting his first win in just over 12 months since his 2018 API triumph, 2018 winner Simpson was winless since 2014, 2015 winner Fowler hadn’t won since the 2012 Wells Fargo, Kaymer and Kuchar were winless in approximately eighteen months, KJ Choi in over three years. In addition if we go back a further year 2010 champion Tim Clark was tasting victory for the first time on the PGA Tour and over a year after he bagged the Australian Open.

So in summary what [or who] are we looking for statically is for an experienced player with on average 5 starts at Sawgrass, a previous top 20 finish, [preferably top 10] who is a big time player with Ryder Cup or Presidents Cup experience who is in strong form coming in but who has struggled to post a victory of late.

Finally, over the last ten years the winning score has ranged from -18 [Webb Simpson in 2018] to -10 [Si Woo Kim in 2017] with the average being around -13.

WEATHER FORECAST

We look set for a dry start to the week with temperatures creeping up as it progresses before reaching the low 80s at the weekend. Unfortunately though with the increased temperatures comes the chance of storms with unfortunately Sunday at the time of writing looking a potential issue.

Wind, which is regularly a factor here looks like it will play its part to a certain extent with gusts increasing as the week progresses and 20mph+ in the forecast.

As I always so though this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with six players this week as follows;

XANDER SCHAUFFELE –  20/1 – 2.5pts E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 2nd

Xander Schauffele is an ever present around the 20/1 mark these days in big events and there will be many who are understandably happy to draw a line through him at these sort of odds due to his propensity to often come up short when it matters.

I will admit I am often in that category myself however this week I am happy to stick with the trends that have served me so well in this event over the years and on that basis he sticks out like a sore thumb to me.

So what are these trends I refer to?

Well as noted earlier current form and course experience are the two key drivers. Firstly on that front Xander has four top tends on the year already while last week after a couple of weeks off he notched a solid 25^th at Bay Hill to give us the requisite ‘last time out decent finish’.

If we then look at his course form and this will be his sixth visit here so we have the experience needed. Like a lot of former winners here Xander’s record is patchy but he has the all important big finish on debut to go with the MC’s while last years 19^th saw him get back on track here.

Other trends noted that the Californian fits is that in an event that has seen many end longer winless droughts here, he is without a victory since 2022, while his profile 100% fits that of that slightly below elite player who has played Ryder Cup/Presidents Cup, and is a proven winner who has knocked on the door in Majors without bagging one at the time of their win here. Think, Stenson, Clark, Garcia, KJ Choi, Fowler, Kuchar and Cam Smith.

Returning to recent form and Xander had his best day from tee to green at Bay Hill on Sunday ranking sixth in this area so he looks primed and ready to go and I can see him stepping up to the next level this week.

JUSTIN THOMAS –  22/1 – 2.5pts E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED MC

Next up I am going to return to a player who served us well here in 2021, Justin Thomas.

Winless since his PGA Championship victory in 2022 Thomas has been very much on the comeback trail since last Fall with seven top 12 finishes in his last eight starts and only a MC at Riviera blotting his record.

Last week meanwhile at Bay Hill JT posted another 12^th place finish where he was solid in all areas.

The two time Major Champion has never missed the cut here in eight visits and with a third and an 11^th to go with the win here he clearly enjoys the set up.

Thomas has shown us before that he can return to a venue he has won at before and repeat the trick having done so at the CIMB and the Sentry and I can see him delivering another winning performance here this week.

SHANE LOWRY –  33/1 – 2pts E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 19th

With the final round of this years Players taking place on St Patrick’s Day the headlines for Shane Lowry to finally get a long overdue third win on the PGA Tour are easily written.

Lowry arrives here on the back of two top four finishes running in Florida so he clearly is building up a head of steam while giving us the imperative requisite recent strong form.

A look at Shane’s record here tells us this will be his ninth start in the event and with best finishes of eighth, 13^th and 16^th he again has the profile we are looking for.

Shane ranked second on driving accuracy, seventh in approach play and sixth around the greens at Bay Hill last week with the putter, for which he was ranked 27^th the club still holding him back somewhat.

Shane doesn’t win often but when he does he tends to win big as proven by the fact that his only win worldwide since his 2019 Open triumph came at the BMW PGA in 2022. I have a hunch this week then that Irish eyes could be smiling on St Patrick’s Day with Shane returning to the winners enclosure once again.

COREY CONNERS –  55/1 - 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 13th

One player who comes in to the week perhaps slightly under the radar is Corey Conners, however he is another who fits the profile very nicely and with his odds having drifted out slightly I will happily chance him.

The Canadian makes his sixth start this week at TPC Sawgrass and with a best of seventh here he has the course form and experience we are looking for.

2024 has so far been a year of strong, steady but unspectacular golf from Conners however last weeks 18^th place at Bay Hill represents his best finish of the campaign to date and with his iron play seeing him ranked second in approaches for the week it was just the usual suspect putter, which held him back. As we know though with all strong ball strikers like Conners they are just one good putting week away from a big showing. In addition of course with Sawgrass a track that rewards strong ball strikers historically it certainly should be a great fit for Corey.

Conners will be desperate to book his spot in Mike Weir’s Presidents Cup Team this Fall and I can see him producing a big effort this week to go along way to doing just that.

KEITH MITCHELL –  100/1 – 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8. - FINISHED 73rd

If we are to have another ‘shock winner’ on the PGA Tour this week in a year of shocks, then Keith Mitchell ticks one heck of a lot of boxes as being the man to provide.

Firstly at fourth off the tee this season and 23^rd in approach play Mitchell has the strong tee to green game that flourishes here, while as we know he is at his best on Bermuda greens with his lone win to date coming in Florida at the Honda.

This season meanwhile Keith has been producing some really solid stuff with three top 20s in his last three starts. Furthermore he closed out the American Express in January on Pete Dye’s Stadium Course, which mirrors Sawgrass strongly, with a 62 on his way to another top ten so he should have some good vibes coming in here.

So we have the current form we need and positive Florida performer but what of course form? Well again Keith ticks the profile perfectly on this front as this week see’s him make his sixth start in the event with a best of 13^th two years ago.

As noted earlier as the PGA Tour’s flagship event and the alleged ‘fifth Major’ The Players as you would expect tends to be the domain of the biggest names. That said we have had the likes of Steven Ames and of course Craig Perks pop up here over the years, while more recently Si Woo Kim’s victory can certainly be seen as a shock. A win for Mitchell then wouldn’t be seen as huge upset in this context and he looks a great dark horse to me.

DOUG GHIM –  125/1 – 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8. - FINISHED 16th

Finally I can’t ignore the obvious credentials of Doug Ghim.

A player with a fine amateur record Ghim is one of many who boast strong credentials on that front but who are yet to push on in the big league.

This year though with four top twenty finishes to his name in succession Ghim finally appears to be getting some momentum together and this could just be the year he breaks through.

Twelfth on tour in approach play and 34^th off the tee Doug’s normal strong long game, which makes him a great fit here is firing however it is the relative improvement on the greens where he currently ranks 49^th, which is making the difference.

All great at the moment in the Ghim camp then but what makes him an obvious pick for this week is his record at this event and indeed Pete Dye tracks in general.

Firstly of course we have his standout sixth here to years ago, while it shouldn’t be forgotten that the previous year he was right in the hunt heading in to Sunday before struggling and falling away to 29^th. Add in his fifth at the Amex in 2021, the year they played three rounds on the Dye design due to Covid, and we have ourselves something of a Pete Dye specialist.

Doug should be licking his chops heading in to this week then and I’ll take him to build on his recent strong form and produce another great run here.

UPDATED 12th MARCH

FIRST ROUND LEADER

BEN AN 66/1 - 1pt E/W 1/5 1st 7 - ALEX NOREN 80/1 - 1pt E/W 1/5 1st 7 & CHESSON HADLEY 250/1 - 11pt E/W 1/5 1st 7. - NO RETURN

Three selections for FRL. Historically it has paid to focus here on the AM wave as the wind tends to gradually pick up as the day progresses. On that basis its two from the AM and one from the PM.

From the AM I will take Alex Noren and to smaller stakes Chesson Hadley.

Looking at Hadley first and he heads out in the first group of the morning at 7.40am so he will get the best of the greens.

Currently ranked fifth on tour in round one scoring in three of his five Chesson has opened up with 65, 67 and then again most recently 65 at the Honda and having made four of his five cuts he is playing solidy this season. 

Add in the fact that he shot a 66  here on Thursday in 2018 on his way to 11th place and we have ourselves a guy who is playing solidly this year, thriving on Thursday's, has a great tee time and has 'previous' here at going well on day one. That's enough for me to get involved at the odds big odds.

On to Noren and the Swede is another who is thriving on Thursday's at the moment ranking third on Tour on that front. The Swede arrives on the back of his best showing this season, a ninth at PGA National and having finished tenth here before we know he can handle the track. I'm happy to chance him from his 8.02 AM Tee time.

Finally headin out in the first PM groups at 12.45PM is Ben An.

An is putting together an incredibly consistent 2024 however he contnues to prove frustrating at the business end of events as he awaits his maiden PGA Tour title.

Three times this year though Ben has posted 67 on Thursday and having closed with a 68 on Sunday in Orlando to post an eighth place finish he should be in confident mood.

TPC Sawgrass tends to reward players in good all round form, which Ben certainly is and I can see him getting out of the blocks quickly this week.