Cognizant Classic In The Palm Beaches

Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches

It was a week that promised much for us at the Mexico Open, but, which unfortunately in the end failed deliver little more than a small profit. Ultimately a ‘profit is a profit’ but with two of our big priced picks Chan Kim & Carson Young finishing in a log jam for eighth our returns were eaten in to and it was left to Patrick Rodgers to bag the lions share of our return with a sixth place finish.

The event itself was won by Jake Knapp who built on the promise he had shown of late to outlast Sami Valimaki on a nervy Sunday.

So with the Mexico Open in the books the tour now heads to the East Coast to start a four week run in Florida.

With the exception of 2021 when the schedule was re jigged the event formally known as the Honda Classic has traditionally heralded the beginning of the Florida Swing.

Last year though after Honda one of, if not the, longest serving sponsors on the PGA Tour chose to end its relationship with the event after 41yrs, the future of the tournament, which had become a victim of its spot in the schedule in the lead up to ‘designated events’ and The Players was at this point very much in doubt.

Fortunately though information technology company Cognizant have stepped forward with a long term deal to sponsor the event through to 2030 so the future of the tournament is secured.

The event was first played in 1972 and was hosted at several different locations until moving to Palm Beach Gardens in 2006.

After one year in 2006 at the Country Club at Mirasol it then moved to PGA National in 2007 and has remained there ever since.

In the same year the tournament's main beneficiary became the Nicklaus Children's Health Care Foundation, chaired by Barbara Nicklaus, wife of Jack Nicklaus, and this continues to be the case.

The market is dominated by Rory McIlroy at single figure odds. McIlroy is then followed by Cameron Young, Russell Henley, Matt Fitzpatrick and Eric Cole.

COURSE

PGA National was originally a Tom & George Fazio design, which has subsequently undergone redesigns from Jack Nicklaus both in 1990 & 2013.

The other Nicklaus designs played regularly on tour are Muirfield village home of the Memorial and also last years ‘one off’ Workday event and the Nicklaus Tournament Course used as part of the course rotation for the Amex. In addition the Concession Club home of the 2021 WGC is a Nicklaus design.

The event has been played at PGA National since 2007.

The course, one of the tougher nuts to crack all year on the PGA Tour has played to a par 70 of just over 7100 yards. This year however the par four 10^th has been lengthened by 20 yards and will now play as a par 5, giving us a par 71 and potentially lower scoring.

The greens are TiffEagle Bermuda.

The ‘signature section’ of the course is The Bear Trap, which is holes 15-17. These holes combined create the toughest part of the course and indeed arguable the toughest 3 hole stretch on regular PGA Tour events year in year out.

These holes are made up of 2 par 3’s, the 15^th & 17^th and the par 4 16^th. If you can get through these three holes in level par you are certainly picking up shots on the field.

As noted earlier PGA National is a tough test with solid ball striking being the order of the day. In addition and without stating the obvious, keeping your ball out of the numerous water hazards which populate the course is a key ingredient to success here!

HISTORY

PGA National is undoubtedly a challenging test for the players. Only four times  in the last nine years has the winning score been double digits under par. Firstly in 2017 when Rickie Fowler came home in -12 for a 4 shot victory, in 2021 when Matt Jones triumphed by five on a -12 total in 2022 when Sepp Straka edged out Shane Lowry with a 10- under total and then last year when Chris Kirk and Eric Cole both posted 14- under before Kirk triumphed in the play off.

The other winning scores over the past 6yrs have been -8, -9, -6, -8, -9 and -5 from Sungjae Im in 2020.

Just how difficult the course plays is dictated by how hard the wind blows and of course if the track has been ‘softened up’ by any rain.

So let’s take a look at the past 10 winners of the event;

2023 Chris Kirk

2022 Sepp Straka

2021 Matt Jones

2020 Sungjae Im

2019 Keith Mitchell

2018  Justin Thomas

2017  Rickie Fowler

2016  Adam Scott

2015  Padraig Harrington

2014  Russell Henley

 As we can see the role of honour over the past 10yrs has been a bit of a mixed bag. 2016 through to 2017 saw wins for three of the games big names in the shape Justin Thomas, Rickie Fowler and Adam Scott and there also a comeback win for Padraig Harrington. In addition just over ten years ago Rory McIlroy took home the trophy in 2012.

In amongst this though there were maiden PGA tour successes for Straka, Sungjae Im, Keith Mitchell, alongside wins for Matt Jones & Russell Henley, while 2015 saw Padraig Harrington roll back the years.

Im is now of course established as one of the top performers in the game, so of these winners you could only really class Jones, Thompson, Henley and Mitchell as more leftfield.

When looking at the list of past winners and players who have performed well at this event there is an obvious cross reference to the British Open.

Rory and Harrington are past Open Champions as of course is Ernie Els who won here in 2008. Scott came as close you can do without winning it and Rickie has taken like a duck to water to links golf and remains an Open Champion in waiting.

This reference also goes back beyond the event being played at PGA National with Todd Hamilton winning the Honda Classic before shocking the golfing world to lift the Claret Jug.

One other point of note on this roll of honour is that only five of the past ten winners hailed from the US with three of the past four champions all hailing from outside of the US.

From the point of view of form coming in to the week and historical course form Thomas, Fowler and Scott were as telegraphed as a winner could be having finished top ten in their previous start and all having a previous top 12 finish in the event. Henley meanwhile had been in a poor run of form prior to his win here in 2014 having missed three of his five full field event cuts in the calendar year with nothing better than 51^st. He had though finished 13^th here the year before.

Straka had been on a solid run of form making all of his previous cuts in 2022 and posting two top 16 finishes in his previous four starts. Furthermore he had finished 33^rd and 27^th here the previous two years so the signs were there. Kirk meanwhile had finished seventh here the year before and prior to missing the cut in Phoenix had posted back to back third place finishes in the Sony and the Amex so the clues were clearly there.

Beyond that though the picture gets very murky as Harrington and Mitchell had no form coming in to speak of, and no positive history on the course, although of course Harrington had the obvious British Open link, while 2020 winner Im arrived here on the back of nothing better than 29^th place in his previous four starts and a 51^st place finish on his debut in the event the previous year. Finally 2021 winner Jones had posted a fourth here many years ago but had done nothing of note in the event over the past ten years and after a solid West Coast swing had played poorly in his first two starts in Florida. As a two time champion of his home Open though his pedigree in tough windy conditions was not in doubt and he certainly fitted the profile of international winners.

One thing that it has historically paid dividends to take note of here is players arriving at the event who would benefit from the tour moving across to the East Coast and therefore switching from the Poa Annua greens on to Bermuda Greens. This was particularly pertinent both last year with Kirk, the previous with Straka and in 2019 and 2020 with both Im and Mitchell all players with East Coast links and who had clearly indicated before that they were far more comfortable on Bermuda.

Finally in terms of correlating courses there appears to be a clear link with another track, which features plenty of water hazards, TPC Twin Cities, which hosts the 3M Open. Michael Thompson has triumphed at both courses, last years 3M winner Lee Hodges has a strong record here, while others to have performed well at TPC Twin Cities over recent years include Honda Champions Mitchell and Im as well as Emiliano Grillo and Jhonattan Vegas.

 WEATHER FORECAST

We look set for a dry week as a whole with temperatures expected to be in the low to mid 80s throughout. At the time of writing though Sunday does show the potential for a storm.

Wind as is normally the case here will be a factor with gusts around 20mph+ showing as a possibility through all four days.

As I always so though this could all change!

 PICKS

I have gone with seven players this week as follows;

ROBERT MCINTYRE – 100/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8 - FINISHED 60th.

I shall start of what is undeniably a speculative team this week by taking what I see as generous odds on Robert McIntyre.

One look at the history of this event over the years shows us that above all else it links with our Open Championship Harrington of course has triumphed here, Lowry, Fleetwood and Westwood have all come close here and a former Champion here Adam Scott really should have lifted the Claret Jug as we know. Go back further and unheralded Open Champion Todd Hamilton gained his first PGA Tour title in this event all be it on a different course. Basically the windy Florida Coast and windy Open Championship venues seem to go hand in glove.

Robert as we know was brought up on the West Coast of Scotland and with two top ten finishes to his name in four Open starts his proficiency in windy conditions is not in doubt.

Last week in Mexico the lefty kick started his PGA Tour season with sixth place finish in Mexico ranking third off the tee for the week and 15^th in approach play.

Buoyed by that effort then I’ll take him to build on it and take to PGA National like a duck to water.

CARSON YOUNG – 125/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8 - FINISHED 56th

Next up I’ll give another chance to a player who performed well for us last week, Carson Young.

In Mexico Young built on a solid start to his 2024, which had seen him make three of his first four cuts by posting an eighth place finish in Mexico.

Young made our Mexico team based on his eye catching record on paspalum, however what really made his week last week was his strong all round play, which saw him gain strokes in all key areas. Meanwhile a wider look at Carson’s stats for the season to date shows us he is ranked 14^th in approach play, and a similarly strong effort with the irons will serve him in good stead here.

Young arrived at PGA National last year in a horrid run of form having missed all his cuts on the year to date however he kick started his 2023 here with a 29^th place finish, which saw him open with a 65. Returning this year then in far better form I expect him to improve on that effort and put in a big performance on a course he obviously enjoys.

PARKER COODY – 125/1 – 1pt e/w 1/5 odds 1st 10 - FINISHED 47th

Next up I was delighted to see Parker Coody get a late sponsors exemption in the event.

The less heralded of the Coody twins as they arrived on tour this year it is the ball striking prowess of Parker that has so far outperformed the explosive scoring of his brother.

Parker to date has made three of his four cuts on tour in 2024 and while it is early days he currently sits 30^th in approach play. Meanwhile last year on the Korn Ferry Parker ranked 11^th in GIR so it is clear where his strengths lie.

Brought up in Texas you would expect Parker to be more than comfortable in windy conditions and coming off the back of a 24^th place in Mexico I expect him to relish this weeks challenge.

 SAM RYDER –  150/1 – 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 21st

Moving on and the first of two Floridians to make my line up is Sam Ryder.

As noted earlier it often pays dividends to side with players when the tour heads East who will benefit from that switch and Ryder certainly fits that bill.

Sam actually chose to skip this event las year after an encouraging West Coast and strangely he then failed to deliver in the other Florida events.

He then endured a patchy mid summer, however he reignited his year with seventh place finish at the 3M Open, an event, which ties really strongly here, before producing some really consistent performances for the remainder of the season.

If we then go back to 2022 and 2021 will see that Sam produced eighth and ninth place finishes here when in no great form at all so clearly this is a venue he enjoys.

At 44^th for the season in approach play it is Sam’s putter that is causing him the biggest headache so far in 2024. As a player then that has been known to spark to life when the course suits him I’m happy to risk that the return to more favoured surroundings will lead to an improvement on the greens and a big up turn in form for Sam.

DYLAN WU – 175/1 – 1pt e/w 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED MC

Next up in my team of speculation is Dylan Wu.

Wu’s 22-23 season which saw him finish 86^th in the Fedex Cup was underpinned by two performances, a 10^th place here and a fifth place at the 3M, two results, which once more show us the link between these events, meanwhile if we head back 12 months further and Dylan posted a 30^th place finish here on debut, a result which came on the back of two missed cuts and a 59^th in his previous three starts.

Similarly Dylan’s tenth here last year came on the back of a sluggish start to 2023.

On to 2024 then and its been another patchy start to the campaign, however last week in Mexico Dylan produced his best effort of the season to date posting a 24^th place finish closing the week out with a 66.

Wu’s numbers for 2024 to date show us that he has positive metrics in all key stats so clearly his game is in reasonable shape even if the results don’t hugely portray that yet. Back on a course he has played well on before then I’ll trust him to build on that effort in Mexico.

ANDREW NOVAK – 175/1 – 1pt e/w 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 9th

Next up I will take the bait the layers are offering on Andrew Novak, with their view I assume being that his recent strong efforts will not be sustainable any longer.

What sticks out to me here though is that regardless of current form Novak is a player I actually backed here last year as his strong ball striking pedigree makes him an ideal candidate to go well here. Throw in his current confidence then and we have a really live longshot.

A native of North Carolina Andrew posted his one win to date by the Coast in Florida at the Lecom Classic in 2020, the same event won by one of our picks this week Ben An last year.

Add that to the fact that his best efforts on the PGA Tour to date over the last couple of seasons have come at the Mayakoba, Puerto Rico, Corales, in Mexico at the RSM, Bermuda, the Sony and at Pebble Beach and we clearly have a player who is at his best on a wind effected coastal test.

Not the longest off the tee Novak’s strength as noted above is his tee to green game and last week in Mexico he ranked sixth in this department so his irons are clearly firing.

While Andrew failed to deliver for us here last year his 29^th place finish was an effort full of promise and with his credentials for here ideal in my mind I’ll happily give him another chance this year.

JIMMY STANGER – 225/1 – 1pt e/w 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 35th

Finally in a year where seemingly anything goes on the PGA Tour I’ll take a chance on rookie Jimmy Stanger.

A native of Tampa 28yr old Stanger has made a solid enough start to life on the PGA Tour, making two out of four cuts with a best of 14^th on Bermuda greens at the Amex.

Last week meanwhile in Mexico he ranked first for the week off the tee, and 14^th in old fashioned GIR, with the putter, for which he was ranked 55^th holding him back.

A winner on the Korn Ferry Tour last year in Oklahoma I would expect Stanger to be comfortable in the wind, particularly of course with his Tampa up bringing.

I’ll roll the dice then at big odds that Jimmy can produce a big week as the Tour hits his home state.