Genesis Invitational

Genesis Invitational

It was a ‘nearly but not quite’ week for us in Phoenix as while our team struggled as a whole one of our selections, Sahith Theegala was in the box seat heading in to the final day.

With the event for the second week running hampered by the weather the leaders came back out on Sunday morning needing to play 11 holes of their third round before heading straight back out for their final 18.
Theegala who had by the far the worst of the draw had played sublimely for the first 36 holes to take the halfway lead, however after a scrappy start to his third round on Saturday evening, while he hung in their gamely on Sunday he struggled to really push forward.

Many assumed at that point that the double defending champion Scottie Scheffler would take advantage to land a historic threepeat, however he uncharacteristically stalled on his final back nine leaving the stage set for a dual between 47 year old Charley Hoffman and Nick Taylor.

After posting a 21- under total long standing Waste Management sponsor Hoffman looked all set to end a near eight your winless drought, however Taylor broke his heart by firstly birdieing three of his final four holes to tie him, before landing the knockout blow on the second play off hole.

So, we move on and after four weeks on the West Coast the tour moves to Pacific Palisades, to the iconic Riviera Country Club for the final leg of the West Coast Swing.

The Genesis Open was first held in 1926.

Its previous names have included the Los Angeles Open, The Nissan Open and The Northern Trust Open before Genesis Motors took over as the title sponsor in 2017.

The tournament has been held at the Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades on a pretty much continuous basis since 1973.

2020 saw a change as with effect from then the tournament was given Invitational status. As a result of this the field size was slightly reduced to 120 compared to other PGA Tour events. In addition the winner here will receive a three year tour exemption compared to the usual two.

This year the event is the third of this season’s ‘Signature Events’ and like the previous two there is a limited field of between 70-80 in attendance. The final field will be made up of last seasons top 50, ‘the next ten, the ‘swing five’ and sponsors invitations, with tournament host Tiger Woods taking one of those spots.

Unlike the previous two Signature Events this year this week a cut will be in play with the top 50 and those within ten shots of the lead through 36 holes playing the weekend.

The field needless to say is a stellar one with Scottie Scheffler marginally heading the market from Rory McIlroy.
This duo are then followed by the Californian trio of Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay and Max Homa.

COURSE

Riviera Country Club is seen as a classical test and features tight, tree lined fairways. Accuracy of the tee has historically been seen as key here although over recent years it has become more of a bombers paradise, particularly when the course has been wet.

Riviera is a par 71 playing to just over 7300 yards.

The greens are Poa Annua.

One of the key features of the course is the Kikuyugrass rough which is very rare for a US course. It is however found on South African and Australian courses and therefore both South African and Australian players do have a good record here.

For those looking to trade in running the par 5 1st hole is basically the easiest hole on the course and is a ‘must birdie’ hole. If you make Par you are certainly dropping a shot to the field.

The driveable par 4 10th to me is one of the best holes played on tour all year. At 315yds an eagle 2 is in theory achievable but if you fail to hit the right spot off the tee a bogey 5 quickly comes in to play.

HISTORY

So let’s take a look at the last ten winners to try and find some clues…

2023 J Rahm
2022 J Niemann
2021 M Homa
2020 A Scott
2019 JB Holmes
2018 B Watson
2017 D Johnson
2016 B Watson
2015 J Hahn
2014 B Watson

Prior to Rahm, Niemann, Homa and Scott’s victories the event had seen a victory for JB Holmes in 2019, three wins for Bubba in the previous five years and a win for Dustin Johnson in 2017. DJ was also 4th here in 2016 and 2nd here in both 2015 and 2014.

Add in the fact that Cam Young, Dechambeau, Finau, Cantlay, Pieters, Kokrak , Zalatoris & Burns have all placed here over the past six years and it becomes clear that Riviera has turned in to something of a ‘bombers paradise’ over recent times. In fact until Homa bucked the trend in 2021 with a ranking of 58th the lowest any of the previous five winners have ranked in driving distance on tour at the end of the season they won the event is Adam Scott in 2020 who ranked 19th. 2022 winner Niemann though was also one of the longer hitters on the PGA Tour prior to his defection to LIV with a ranking of 38th in DD that season while Rahm ranked 11th in DD on tour last year.

Having said that we shouldn’t ignore the fact that Matt Fitzpatrick, Kevin Na [twice] Scott Brown [twice], Wes Bryan & KJ Choi have all finished in the top 5 over the years, so there is still opportunity for everyone, particularly in a dryer year.

Looking at these last ten winners it would appear that Riviera Country Club is a venue where the winners pretty much all have the classic combination we are looking for every week…course form meets current form.
To explain more lets firstly look at the form of each of these last ten winners coming in to the event.

Eight of these past ten winners noted above had made the cut in their previous start with the two exceptions being JB Holmes and Bubba in 2016 who had both missed the 54 hole cut at Pebble, whilst eighth of them had posted a top 14 finish in at least one of their two previous starts. This trend was rubber stamped again by Rahm last year who was on a ‘heater’ when he arrived here of two wins, a third and a seventh in his four starts on the calendar year to date. Niemann meanwhile in 2022 and Homa the year before had finished sixth at Torrey Pines and seventh at Pebble Beach respectively in their previous starts.

It should be noted though while the 2020 winner Adam Scott held up these statistics he somewhat bucked the trend in that he was making his first start on the PGA Tour of the year in the week that he won. He had however won the Australian PGA in his previous start just before Christmas so he clearly arrived in a confident mood.

As we can see then solid form coming in is important.

With regards to previous course form again we can see looking over the past ten winners that this has given us a big clue.

Rahm had two top ten’s with a best of fifth here in his four previous visits while Homa had finished fifth here the year before winning, Scott had finished in the top 11 here in four of his previous five visits, while 2019 Champion JB Holmes had made his previous five cuts here including finish fifth in 2016.

Then we have Bubba who was naturally a previous winner when he lifted the trophy on the last two occasions. In addition to this he had posted a 13th place finish here in 2012, 2yrs prior to his first win.

DJ meanwhile prior to winning in 2017 had posted three top 5 finishes in the three previous years.
Haas had finished 12th here the year before winning and Baddeley also had a 13th place finish here to his name 4yrs prior to his victory and had also made the cut in the subsequent three years.

In fact only three winners out of the past ten did not have a previous top 13 finish in the event with two of these being players with local California connections, James Hahn and John Merrick, with Hahn having a best place finish of 29th in the event the year before and Merrick never having managed better than 54th.

It is worth noting though that Merrick was making his 6th start in the event the year he won so he did at least have plenty of course experience along with local connections.

The third player who did not have a previous big finish here was Niemann, however the Chilean had marked our card the year before with regards to his suitability to the track by sitting in a share of second through 36 holes.

Returning to the the theme of Californian winners let’s not also forget that 2021 Champion Homa is a local boy through and through with this event basically his ‘home town fifth Major’. Add this to Hahn and Merrick’s successes here then and this does seem to be an event, which can reward the Golden State guys.

So there we have it then, it appears this is not an event for debutants and is certainly one where course and current form coming in is key.

The winning score here has varied considerably over recent years with differing softer/firmer conditions impacting this.

Homa posted -12 on his way to victory while Scott won with an 11- under total and JB won with a total of -14 the previous year. Bubba triumphed with a -12 total in 2018 while In 2017 DJ won with a score of -17, however in 2015 James Hahn won with a score of -6. Last year Rahm triumphed with 17- under while Niemann who lead the field a merry dance over the four days going wire to wire in 2022, posted a winning total of 19- under.

WEATHER FORECAST

As we know this part of the US has been hit by a deluge of rain over recent weeks however mercifully we look set for a dry week as a whole although Sunday does show the possibility of a shower.

Wind does not look to be much of an issue with nothing more than 10mph or so showing for the first three days although again this could increase slightly on Sunday.

As I always say though this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with four players this week as follows;

JUSTIN THOMAS – 20/1 – 2.5pts E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 7 - FINISHED MC

In an event where time and again the old mantra of course form meets current form prevails I will start a pretty straightforward team off with Justin Thomas.

With JT arriving here on the back of seven straight top 12 finishes world wide his well documented struggles of 2023 seem to be well and truly behind him and all that is missing now is a return to the winners enclosure.

A look at Thomas’s 2024 stats to date show us that he currently ranks third from tee to green, 17th in approach play and third around the greens and it is only really the putter, which is letting him down to date.

Last week Justin posted a mixed bag of a performance with his approach play firing on days one and three but cooling down on the other days, while the putter fired in round two but not for the rest of the week. Still though it was enough for a 12th place finish and clearly Thomas is ‘close’.

With regards to form at Riviera meanwhile JT can boast three top tens in his last six visits including a runner up finish in 2019 where he squandered a final round four shot lead, so clearly he is comfortable here and has unfinished business.

As I said earlier all Thomas needs now to cap his comeback is a win and there is no doubt he would love to achieve that at his good friend Tiger Woods’ event and I am happy to side with him to do just that this week.

SAM BURNS – 25/1 – 2pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 7 - FINISHED 10th

Next up I will turn to Sam Burns.

Like Thomas, Burns is another player with unfinished business at Riviera as prior to landing his first trophy at the Valspar in 2021 Sam made the headlines here a couple of months or so earlier when he opened up with rounds of 64 and 66 to take a five shot lead at the halfway stage.

Not unsurprisingly, still a maiden on the tour at the time, Burns was unable to maintain the pace that year and after stumbling to a third round 74 he finally finished third. Not to be for Sam that week then, however what of course that performance did do was mark our card as a player whose above average length off the tee and strong approach play made him well suited to the challenges of Riviera.

Since that near miss here it must be said it has been a struggle for Burns at Riviera as he has missed the cut on his two subsequent visits including when we were onboard last year.

Still though since that third place finish here Burns has posted five wins on the PGA Tour so clearly he is a serial winner capable of striking in big company.

On to 2024 then and after a low key start at the Sentry Sam has really found some momentum with finishes of sixth, tenth and then third last week in Phoenix. Furthermore a look at Sam’s stats last week show us that he ranked first off the tee, 20th in approach play and 12th in putting so clearly everything is firing.
In the second of four straightforward picks then I’m happy to have Burns on side this week.

SAHITH THEEGALA – 33/1 – 1.5pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 7 - FINISHED 37th

Next up this week I make no apologies for returning to Sahith Theegala after he delivered the place money for us last week.

Naturally having held the halfway lead in Phoenix we were quite justified in hoping for something better and it must be said it was frustrating to see Sahith stall in Sunday. Add that to the gruelling nature of the week on the back of similar at Pebble the week before and I will admit my one slight concern here is fatigue.

On the flip side though if you had asked me at the beginning of the year, which event I was most likely to back Theegala in I would have said Riviera and I am loathed to jump off him now when clearly he is in good nick.

To expand on my reasons for liking Sahith here and firstly of course he hails from California and attended college at Pepperdine University in the LA area so he has the obvious local connections, which has stood many in good stead here over the years.

Then of course we have his win last Fall at the Fortinet, an event, which so often ties well here, with Homa the most obvious link over recent years.In addition Theegala has often been likened to Bubba Watson in the way he plays the game and as we know Bubba is a course specialist here. Furthermore of course we don’t have to speculate on Sahith’s suitability to the course as he was sixth here last year when we were onboard.

Sahith made his PGA Tour debut here way back in 2017 as an amateur posting a hugely creditable 49th having earned his spot in the field here by winning the collegiate showcase on the course a week earlier.

Clearly Sahith has seen plenty of Riviera over the years then and we can take confidence from the fact that he cites it as one of his two or three favourite tracks. With his vocal band of supporters surely out in force once again then I’ll trust him to get himself up for another big week and be right in the hunt come Sunday once again.

ADAM SCOTT – 40/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 7 - FINISHED 19th

Finally I shall turn 180 degrees from the youthful exuberance of Theegala to the experience of Adam Scott.
A two time winner of the event the case for Scott is about as straightforward as you can get, something which as noted earlier is often the case with the winner here.

Scott who missed out on the Fedex Cup top 50 last season has picked up in 2024 where he left off late in 2023, by producing some strong performances.

Twentieth at Pebble Beach was a good opener for the year, while last week he produced a hugely encouraging performance in Phoenix to finish eighth with his approach play, for which he ranked third for the week, really catching the eye.

On to this week then and the Aussie has five top eleven finishes in his last eight visits to Riviera including a win and a second so there is no doubting how much he loves it here.

I’ll round things off then by taking the 43yr old to fire here once again.