Waste Management Phoenix Open

Waste Management Phoenix Open

It was a damp squib of a week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in more ways than one.

From our point of view it was a damp squib in that none of our players every remotely got in to contention with all four suffering from cold putters, which left them in the middle of the pack.

Meanwhile from an evet point of view after the players were able to take advantage of a sodden course over the first three days the final day, or indeed potential two days were completely washed out as torrential rain and high winds hit the Monterey area meaning the event was shortened to 54 holes.

The one player though who wont be bemoaning how the week played out is Wyndham Clark. The Us Open champion stormed through the field with a superb round of 60 on Saturday, only missing the magical 59 by fractions, and after the event was called at the 54 hole stage he found himself holding the trophy.

So after three weeks in California the PGA tour heads back in to the desert to TPC Scottsdale in Arizona located North East of downtown Phoenix. This will be the 36th consecutive year the event has been played at this venue.

The event has become known for its raucous crowds and record attendances. The four-day attendance of the tournament is usually around a half million; the best-attended event in golf. In 2016, it set a PGA Tour single day attendance record with 201,003 fans attending on the Saturday, and set a tournament week attendance record of 618,365 people.

There’s no doubt that a certain type of temperament is normally required to handle the atmosphere here, with the noise reaching a crescendo at the par 3 16th hole, nicknamed the Coliseum. This hole is basically an amphitheatre, which is usually surrounded by 20,000 + fans who will boo you in unison if you hit a bad tee shot.

In addition the fact that the event traditionally falls on Super Bowl weekend adds to the overall party atmosphere.
While the event does not carry ‘signature event’ status for 2024 despite the late withdrawals of Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele there is still, a reasonable field in attendance. Double defending champion Scottie Scheffler who is aiming for the ‘threepeat’ heads up the market followed by a resurgent Justin Thomas and Max Homa.

COURSE

TPC Scottsdale is a par 71 playing to just over 7250 yards. The course features 3 par 5s and 4 par 3s. Undoubtedly the back 9 is the more scoreable 9 on the course with the real birdie opportunities coming on a 5 hole stretch from 13 through to 17, which features 2 par 5s and the driveable par 4 17th.

The greens are TiffEagle Bermuda.

The original course designers were Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish. The course then underwent a renovation in 2014 under the guidance again of Tom Weiskopf.

TPC Scottsdale is set in the Arizona desert and as such we should be looking this week at players with strong form in in other Desert events such as the Reno Tahoe Open, The Desert Classic and the Shriners Hospital for Children Open, as well as on the European Tour in Dubai.

In addition it is worth noting the event is played at altitude of approximately 1250ft above sea level.

As well as the Barracuda and the Shriners other events played on the PGA Tour at altitude over recent years include the WGC Mexico and the CJ Cup in Korea.

HISTORY

So let us firstly look at the last ten winners of the event have been as follows;

2023 S Scheffler
2022 S Scheffler
2021 B Koepka
2020 W Simpson
2019 R Fowler
2018 G Woodland
2017 H Matsuyama
2016 H Matsuyama
2015 B Koepka
2014 K Stadler

Looking at these winners and the first thing that grabs me is that as a rule previous form in desert events, whether here or elsewhere, is the key to solving the puzzle here.

Double defending champion Scottie Scheffler had finished seventh here in 2021 before defending last year while 2021 champion Brooks Koepka was a previous winner here. The 2020 winner Webb Simpson had posted 4 previous top tens here including a second place finish, the 2019 winner Fowler had been the perennial bridesmaid here prior to his victory with finishes of 11 4 2 in the previous three years while Woodland the 2018 champion had previously won the Reno Tahoe event and finished 5th here. Finally the winner for the previous two years Matsuyama had come 2nd here in 2015 and 4th in 2014.

If we then dig deeper Koepka had finished 3rd in the Dubai Desert Classic the year before winning here the first time, while Stadler, who was born in Nevada, was something of a desert specialist, having previously finished 11th, 5th and 2nd in Reno as well as 11th here the year before winning.

Go back even further and Mickelson was a two time winner here prior to his win in 2013, as well as having previously tasted success in the Desert Classic. In addition of course Phil has strong ties with the area having attended college in Arizona. 2012 winner Kyle Stanley had finished 10th at the Shriners the year before and in addition came here in strong form having memorably lost the previous week’s tournament at Torrey Pines with a meltdown on the 18th hole.

Going back even further 2011 winner Mark Wilson had posted a 9th place and 11th place finish in this event over the previous three years as well as a top 10 in Reno and at the Shriners while finally 2010 winner Hunter Mahan had posted a previous top 10 finish here.

To sum up every one of the past thirteen winners had posted previous top 10 finishes in Desert events, whilst eight of them had posted one either in this event or in Reno.

Current form coming in to the event can be beneficial as we saw with Simpson in 2020 who triumphed on the back of a third place finish at the Sony, while Scheffler of course had been racking up the big finishes prior to defending last year, however it is not a requisite.

2019 champion Rickie Fowler had only made one start in the calendar year a ‘loosener’ of a 66th place at Torrey Pines the week before, similarly Hideki Matsuyama had missed the cut on his only previous calendar year start, also at the Farmers, the year he was first victorious, conversely though 2018 winner Gary Woodland had finished 12th and seventh in his previous two starts. 2021 winner Koepka had missed the cut in his first two outings of the calendar year and finally Scheffler before his first win in 2022 had been solid but unspectacular in finishing 25th and 20th in his first two outings of the year.

All in all then, bearing in mind the completely different challenges they set, to me the pedigree in the desert is more important than form at Pebble Beach or indeed Torrey Pines over the previous fortnight.

Whilst you still need to go low there is a definite feel that the course has toughened up a bit since the redesign in 2014 and it is unlikely for the foreseeable future we will be seeing a winning score like the -24 Phil Mickelson posted in 2013.

It’s also worth noting that the type of player peppering the leaderboard since the redesign seems to have shifted slightly with solid tee to green players Reavie, Steele, Kuchar, Simpson, Spaun, Weekley and English all producing the goods here over the years. In addition of course double defending champion Scheffler is very much known for his tee to green strengths.

If we then look the 2021 final leaderboard there is even more evidence of this as not only did strong ball striker Matthew NeSmith perform well to finish seventh but finishing one shot ahead of him was 50+ Steve Stricker.
Undoubtedly bombing it off the tee is still an advantage but keeping it in play and finding the greens seems to have become more relevant.

Until his withdrawal with injury in 2018 Hideki had been the dominant player in the event over a four year stretch with two wins, a second place and a fourth place to his name.

Four of the past ten winners here, Scheffler, Koepka in 2015], Stadler and Stanley were all notching their first PGA Tour victories.

Over the last 7yrs the winning score has ranged from -14 to -19, with Scheffler triumphing with a -19 total last year.

WEATHER FORECAST

While we shouldn’t see anything quite as dramatic the unsettled weather we had at Pebble Beach last week unfortunately seems to have followed us to Arizona.

The early part of the week calls for cooler showery weather and while things look dryer as we head in to the weekend temperatures do not look like they will get above the low 60s all week.

Wind, which can play a part here looks like it will keep the players honest at 10-15mph across the week.
As I always say though this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with six players this week as follows;

BYEONG HUN AN 33/1 – 1.5pts E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 66th

I mentioned earlier that form in the desert is more important to me in this event than current form coming in however one player who leaps out as having both is Ben An.

An has shown over the years that he is a big fan of desert golf by notching four consecutive top 15 finishes in the Dubai Desert Classic, the latest of which came in 2018.

In addition Ben had a great opportunity to grab his first PGA Tour title here in 2017 when he held the 54 hole lead before closing with a disappointing 73 on Sunday.

On that occasion Ben found the pressure too much as he limped home with a round of 73 to fall back in to 6th place, however it was another strong indicator that Ben enjoys his time in the desert.

Following Ben’s near miss here in 2017 over the next couple of years he chose to play in the Dubai Desert Classic the week before this event finishing sixth and 12th before arriving here and playing solidly, however in 2020 he played at Torrey Pines instead finishing way down the field in 68th, place but without the associating jet lag he went on to finish ninth here having been right in the thick of things through 36 holes.

2021 saw Ben notch by far his best effort of the campaign in the Desert, an eighth place finish at the American Express, however so poor was his form for the remainder of the year that he found himself back on the Korn Ferry Tour the following season.

Since returning to the big league for 22/23 though the 32 year old has been resurgent notching six top ten finishes and he was agonisingly close to his first tour title at the Sony recently before losing out to Grayson Murray in a play off.

With all parts of Ben’s game firing in 2024 he returns now to Phoenix for the first time since 2021 and you would have to think he is relishing the opportunity to go one better than at Waialae CC in favoured conditions.

SAHITH THEEGALA – 33/1 – 1.5pts E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 5th

We were on Theegala at Torrey Pines recently and there was no denying it was a disappointing week as he limped home in 64th place.

Last week though Sahith played nicely at Pebble Beach to sit in 20th place when proceedings were called to a halt and I am happy to chance him again on his preferred West Coast in a field, which lacks depth outside the top two or three.

Theegala off course first came to prominence in this event in 2022, when he was a ‘bad bounce’ away from bagging the title on debut before he ultimately finished third. Last year Sahith then played solidly here again to finish 39th.

A look at the 26yr olds stats for the measured rounds at Pebble Beach show he ranked 22nd in Approach Play and 13th in Putting and I am happy at what I see as pretty generous odds here to chance him again.

HIDEKI MATSUYAMA – 45/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 22nd

Another players odds who very much catch the eye this week is Hideki Matsuyama.

While Scottie Scheffler has no doubt owned this event over the past couple of years TPC Scottsdale was very much the favoured hunting ground of the Japanese star from 2014 – 2017 as over this four year stretch he posted two wins and two further top four finishes here.

While the former Masters Champion has cooled off here more recently he has still played nicely here as after having to WD with injury in 2018 he has posted three further top 16 finishes.

Brining things up to date and the reason of course Hideki’s odds are way more generous here than in years gone by is that he has struggled for form over the past year with nagging injuries seemingly constantly effecting his form.

Starting out in 2024 though Matsuyama looks to be healthy again and although he languished down the field at Pebble Beach last week, a venue he has not frequently visited over the years, there was enough in his performance at Torrey Pines the week before to hint that he is on the verge of some very good stuff. To expand further and at the Farmers while Hideki struggled on the greens he ranked 11th in approach play for the week and first around the greens.

Meanwhile at Pebble despite his lowly finish he ranked 12th off the tee and tenth in driving accuracy.
Winless now for a couple of years Hideki is due another trophy and I’m happy to chance at the odds that things click once more for him in Phoenix.

MARK HUBBARD – 100/1 – 1pt e/w 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 53rd

Next cab off the rank is Mark Hubbard.

Yet to win on the PGA Tour Hubbard has carved out a very good career for himself and I am sure his bank manager will be particularly happy with the six top tens he has posted since last May.

Granted Hubbard cooled off slightly at the end of 2023 however he has started 2024 solidly with four straight made cuts and he backed up an eye catching 20th at the Farmers with a fourth place last week at Pebble. Furthermore a closer look at Torrey Pines shows us Mark lead the field in Approach Play for the week, while at Pebble last week he ranked second on the greens.

Clearly trending in to form then the man from Denver, Colorado returns this week to the desert, where not unsurprisingly allowing for his upbringing at altitude he has a strong record. To expand further and Mark was ninth here in 2020 while he has tenth and fourth place finishes to his name in the last two editions of the Barracuda.

There is no doubt Hubbard has had numerous opportunities to get over the line over the years and has proved frustrating to backers on these occasions but I allowing for his form coming in to this week combined with some strong desert form I am happy to risk him here.

KH LEE – 125/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED MC

Another player who ticks a lot of boxes for me here this week is KH Lee.

At two time winner on tour at TPC McKinney KH has proven to be a bit of master on TPC tracks over recent years as along side those two wins he has a top ten at the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities, to go with a seventh and 14th in the desert at TPC Summerlin and of course a runner up finish here. Some really good desert form then aligned to strong TPC form.

The South Korean missed the cut last time out at The Farmers, however prior to that he played strongly at the Amex, ranking sixth in putting and 15th in approach play on the way to 25th with one bad day letting him down.
I’ll take Lee to bounce back from the MC at Torrey Pines this week then in far more favourable conditions for him.

CARL YUAN – 300/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED WD

Finally I’ll roll the dice at big odds that Carl Yuan takes to TPC Scottsdale on debut.

Yuan agonisingly missed out on a place in the 125 last season, finishing in 126th place on the Fedex Cup however the 26yr old was granted a reprieve when Jon Rahm defected to LIV, thus bumping up a spot to 125.

Heading in to 2024 then and Carl so nearly produced a fairytale start to the year at the Sony Open before ultimately finishing fourth.

Still, that performance means that Carl now has three top six finishes on tour in his last eight starts, not bad for a player heading off this week at huge odds.

Granted Yuan is still very much a ‘feast or famine’ player out here, however his stats for this year see him ranked seventh from tee to green and eighth in total driving,

Yuan arrived on tour last year having lead the 2022 Korn Ferry rankings and to me having found his feet last year he looks very much a player who could push on this season and potentially post a win.

Granted we are taking a leap of faith re the track here and desert form in general however he has the type of aggressive game and outgoing personality that I think could thrive in this environment and I am happy to wrap things up this week by chancing him at big odds.